Before you pay for ads, check that someone is out there to see them. Google Ads is right for your business if your service is already searched for in your city or county, the price of a click leaves you a profitable lead, and you can afford a test of roughly 100 clicks. You can check all of that in 15 minutes. Below is the method and the threshold for a yes or a no.
What the tool is and what else it does, I covered in my guide to Google Keyword Planner. This piece is only the practical demand check for your service. There is no niche case study here, because the method is the same for a plumber, an HVAC company, a dentist or a lawyer.
Five steps in 15 minutes
- Write down 5-8 phrases the way a customer would type them: “[service] [city]”, “[service] cost”, “[service] near me”. The closer to the customer’s words, the more honest the result (2 minutes).
- In your Google Ads account open the “Tools” menu and choose “Keyword Planner”. For basic features Google asks you to finish setting up the account and enter billing information (2 minutes).
- Choose “Discover new keywords”, then “Start with keywords”. Enter your phrases separated by a comma and a space, set the city or area where you work, and select “Get results”. If you already have a list, you can upload it through “Get search volume and forecasts” (3 minutes).
- Read the three columns described below: monthly searches, competition and the top of page bid (5 minutes).
- Add your best phrases to the plan, open the “Forecasts” page, enter your daily budget, and see how many clicks and how much cost are expected per day. Multiply the daily clicks by the days in a month (3 minutes).
The difference between a keyword and a search query is explained in what a keyword is in Google Ads. If you do not have a Google Ads account yet, setting one up is covered in how to create a Google Ads account. The menu path and button names here come from Google’s help page on Keyword Planner. Below is what each column in the results means.
| Column | What it means, per Google’s help | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Avg. monthly searches | The average over 12 months for the keyword and its close variants. The numbers are rounded | Do not add up near-identical phrases: close variants are already counted |
| Competition | Low, medium or high: how many advertisers showed on the keyword relative to all keywords across Google, for the location you picked | This is not the number of competitors in your town. Read it as the general intensity of the fight for the keyword |
| Top of page bid (low range) and (high range) | Roughly the 20th and 80th percentile of what advertisers have paid for top of page. Based on the last 30 days | For a cautious estimate use the high range: Google adjusts the actual cost per click automatically |
| Clicks and cost on the “Forecasts” page | How many clicks and how much cost to expect per day at your budget | An estimate, not a guarantee. The forecast refreshes daily from the last 7-10 days |
The yes or no threshold and owner mistakes
The decision is three checks. This is my method from practice, not a Google rule.
| Check | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Demand | The phrase with your service name and your area shows monthly searches above zero | There are practically no searches, even across several versions of the phrase |
| Test budget | The high range bid multiplied by 100 clicks fits into the amount you are ready to lose on a test | It does not fit |
| Cost per lead | You can afford to pay for one lead much more than a click costs | What you can afford for a lead is only a little above the price of a click |
The third check is simple arithmetic. Cost per lead equals the cost of a click divided by the share of clicks that turn into leads. If not every click becomes a lead, the cost per lead is always higher than the cost of a click, so you need headroom. One hundred clicks is my working rule: below that, a result does not yet prove anything about ads. More on small budgets is in my article on Google Ads with a small budget.
Three yeses mean the test is worth running. Any no means a test in this form is hard to justify: change the service, the area or the budget. If Keyword Planner shows an error or an empty result, that is “no data”, not “no demand”. Try a wider area or a more general phrase.
- Adding up near-identical phrases. Close variants are already counted in one number.
- Reading “Competition” as the number of competitors in your town.
- Treating an empty answer as zero demand.
- Taking the forecast as a promise. Results depend on your bid, budget, ad quality, location targeting and how customers in your industry behave.
- Searching without a location. Nationwide numbers do not show your area.
When this does not apply
- In sensitive categories such as health or finance. Google’s personalized advertising and data privacy policies often block results, which does not mean there is no demand.
- For a very narrow query or a very small area. Keywords with very low search volume cannot be discovered or forecast, and a forecast for a small area is less accurate.
- When customers come from referrals rather than search. Keyword Planner will show little, and Google Ads is then probably not your main channel.
- For a new account. Its forecast is built from the average data of all advertisers, so treat it as a guide only.
- As a test of your website and offer. Demand can exist while leads do not: only a live test shows that.
The step-by-step version of running this check for your own business is in my book on Google Ads for business owners.
My e-book “19 Google Ads Secrets”: how to get the most out of Google Ads without draining your budget, drawn from real campaigns and tests.
See the book →Questions and answers
How many monthly searches are enough?
There is no universal number. Monthly values are rounded and averaged over 12 months. What matters more is how many clicks your budget buys and how much you can pay for a lead.
Keyword Planner shows an error or nothing. What now?
Keyword Planner does not return sensitive keywords or keywords with very low volume. Try a more general phrase or a wider area, and remember that this is missing data, not zero.
How fresh is the Keyword Planner data?
Forecasts refresh daily from the last 7-10 days and account for seasonality. Average monthly searches are calculated over 12 months by default.